Construção de um modelo de dinâmica de sistemas para visualização da demanda de estireno no mercado brasileiro

Abstract

The growth of the petrochemical industry is grounded in end-user applications, such as automotive and construction, which are the main drivers of the styrene market. However, the development and use of substitutes to petrochemical, is already a reality and imposes competition in the applications of petroleum products. In this sense, this thesis is primarily engaged in the construction of a system dynamics model to evaluate different scenarios, visualizing the behavior of styrene demand over time. In order to spread the modeling of dynamic systems, it was built and tested a model using the XMILE models sharing pattern. In the first phase led to a greater understanding of the theme and the construction of a systemic map, which was used in the second phase, to build the validation of explanatory regressions of styrene demand model. In phase three, the display model was built, scenarios, assessment of scenarios and using the display model to generate learning. In the fourth phase, it was built and rated the XMILE model when the convenience and portability, using different platforms compatible with the XMILE. OS built and simulated scenarios, they had the purpose of evaluating the impact on the styrene market, caused by the use of substitute materials and the change in GDP. The use of dynamic systems, together with scenario planning, was efficient, as different strategies to market, could be evaluated based on simulated scenarios. During the assessment phase and learning, participants showed no sensitivity to identify variations in demand over time, where different values for the uncertainties axes are employed. This reinforces the importance of using system dynamics models for this purpose. Also, the use of XMILE may be a good tool in the future, however, due to limited use by software developers, there are great advantages in using this standard.