Relação entre incerteza, confiança, atividade econômica e investimento: uma análise econométrica

Abstract

This work verifies the effects of economic uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty and business confidence in fixed capital investment and economic activity in Brazil, between January 2003 and December 2019. To achieve this purpose, the econometric model methodology was used. Error Correction Vector (VAR/VEC). Three VAR/VEC models were estimated based on time series of five indices: Economic Uncertainty Index (IIE-Br), Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU), Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br), Apparent Consumption Index Machinery and Equipment (CAME) and Business Confidence Index (ICE). The effects of the two variables of political-economic uncertainty and confidence were verified separately. The results show that the increase in economic uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty cause significant contractionary effects on investment in fixed capital and economic activity, on the other hand, an increase in business confidence has positive effects. Furthermore, the results revealed the existence of a long-term influence of both the economic uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty variables, as well as the business confidence variable. Furthermore, through the application of impulse response functions (FIR), it was found that short-term shocks in the uncertainty and confidence variables cause relevant changes in investment in fixed capital and in economic activity, without a tendency to revert in a horizon of ten months time, indicating an inertia effect.