Análise da interdependência entre os investimentos privado e público federal no Brasil

Abstract

In the literature, there is a divergence between the type of relationship between public and private investments, with studies indicating crowding in and others crowding out, identifying a gap in these studies and the need for further investigations that determine this relationship . Thus, it is defended the thesis that public investments have a positive impact on private investments, with the general objective of identifying if there is interdependence between public and private investments in Brazil. For this purpose, quarterly data are analyzed between 2002 and 2015, using a VAR and VEC Model, which allows establishing short- and long-term relationships between variables. Among the models tested, the best of them was composed of private investment, public investment, exchange rate and utilization of installed capacity, which allows the recognition that, with each 1% increase in public investment, on average, 0.44% of private investment. It should be emphasized that the appreciation of the exchange rate has a significant negative effect on private investment in the short term, but in the long run this relationship becomes insignificant. The other results maintained the same signs of elasticities in the short and long terms, results similar to those observed in the literature. Thus, they confirm the hypotheses of research based on the Keynesian function in relation to expectations, income and interest rate, to explain the behavior of public and private investment, so that these hypotheses prove the fundamental thesis of this research and allow to reach the overall goal. In summary, it was possible to determine a positive relation between public and private investments, although this relation has low elasticity. That is, public investment is significant to explain the level of private investment, but it is not the variable with the greatest impact, which was the use of installed capacity (indicating expectations and level of activity). In addition, private and public investments presented a joint movement, and it is not possible to determine a causal relationship by the Granger Test between public and private investments in this research. These situations have a theoretical basis, which indicates that it is a relationship not yet defined and that is suggested as future research, that is, works that try to define the sense of causality between private and public investments.