Complexo de soja brasileiro no contexto da guerra comercial entre EUA e China

Abstract

The objective of the dissertation is to examine the effects of the US-China trade war on the Brazilian economy, with an emphasis on primary products. The methodology used was the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) Computable General Equilibrium model. The results showed that there would be an increase in soybean and steel production in Brazil and a reduction in other sectors. There would also be a trade deficit in all sectors, except for soy and steel, and Brazil would benefit in terms of welfare gains, mainly due to terms of trade gains. At the global level, the trade war between the US and China would result in loss of welfare for the countries directly involved, but the main objective of the Trump government would be achieved by increasing steel and aluminum production and reducing, albeit small, of the US trade deficit by stimulating specialization in high-tech products, while encouraging China to specialize in low-tech products.