http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/1658 PPG Economia Wed, 15 Apr 2026 12:44:24 GMT 2026-04-15T12:44:24Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/13974 A política comercial setorial e os efeitos do Mercosul: uma análise entre fluxos liberalizados e não liberalizados Diverio, Tamara Silvana Menuzzi This study reassesses the impact of Mercosur on trade flows by combining established methods from the traditional gravity literature with recent Difference-in-Differences techniques that are robust to heterogeneity. The differential of the analysis lies in separating trade flows into specific categories: liberalized trade and non-liberalized trade. This distinction is important because Mercosur's trade policy is not uniform, since some products had their intra-bloc tariffs completely eliminated while others remained protected by tariff barriers. The general objective of the research is to analyze the impact of Mercosur's creation on trade flows considering the sectoral policies applied. The methodology combines approaches such as: the application of difference-in-differences robust to heterogeneity according to Nagengast, Rios-Avila, and Yotov (2024), sectoral analysis that differentiates liberalized from non-liberalized trade, simultaneous control of three fixed effects using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator, and the inclusion of bloc expansions. The results show that Mercosur had a positive and significant impact on trade among its members in the analyses conducted, and non-liberalized trade showed the largest gains. This behavior suggests the presence of intra-bloc protection and trade externalities induced by regional integration itself. The research contributes to the literature by demonstrating that, although Mercosur has stimulated trade, selective protection compromises the bloc's economic efficiency and limits its potential for deeper integration, highlighting the need to rethink trade policies to promote more uniform liberalization and greater economic cohesion among member countries. Wed, 10 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/13974 2025-12-10T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/13973 Fusões e aquisições no mercado de ensino superior privado no Brasil e seus efeitos sobre a competitividade das universidades comunitárias e confessionais Timm, Eliézer This thesis analyzes the effects of mergers and acquisitions on the private higher education market in Brazil, focusing on the implications for the competitiveness of community and faith-based institutions. Using a theoretical and empirical approach, it investigates how large educational groups, through expansion strategies and economies of scale, have shaped a scenario of market concentration, particularly driven by Distance Education (DE). The study reveals that, although these transactions expand access to higher education, they also generate competitive asymmetries and threaten the sustainability of faith-based and community-based institutions that are more committed to research, outreach, and regional development. The research proposes that a regulatory framework for DE and differentiated public policies are essential to preserving institutional diversity and ensuring a more balanced competitive environment. Mon, 18 Aug 2025 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/13973 2025-08-18T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/13703 Acordo comercial China-África e seus efeitos econômicos sobre o complexo soja Carvalho, Monique Fernandes Pereira The objective of the study is to analyze the deepening of trade relations between China and the African continent and the economic effects on various sectors, especially the Brazilian soybean complex. The methodology used was the computable general equilibrium model and the GTAP 11 database, with the classification of products by level of technological intensity according to the OECD. The integration of Africa (AfCFTA) in itself leads the bloc to be part of global discussions on trade. The results indicate that the AfCFTA would increase intra-bloc trade, lead to welfare gains and increase production in sectors with greater use of technology and, in return, there would be a reduction in the production of soybeans and other primary products. In the assessment of an AfCFTA agreement with China, the only beneficiary in terms of welfare would be China, both in allocative efficiency and in terms of exchange. Seeking to analyze whether the free trade agreement between China and the AfCFTA could affect trade in the soybean complex, given that China is a major importer of soybeans from Brazil and Africa has vast territorial extensions with strong similarities in agroclimatic conditions with Brazil, the simulation of the agreement indicated that the effects would be modest for the soybean sector, with a slight drop in soybean production on the African continent and a small increase in soybean production in Brazil. However, the increase in Brazilian soybean production leads to a loss of welfare due to losses in the terms of trade. Thu, 27 Mar 2025 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/13703 2025-03-27T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/13702 Acordo de parceria Mercosul-UE: impactos econômicos sobre o agronegócio nos países do Mercosul Buchmann, Jurandir Luiz The objective of the study is to analyze the opportunities that MERCOSUR's trade agreement with the EU would generate for both blocs, with an emphasis on agribusiness in the countries of the South American bloc. The computable general equilibrium model was used, using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database, version 11, to simulate the impacts on production and trade and the effects on well-being. The results show that there would be a global gain in well-being for the countries participating in the agreement, with emphasis on Brazil and the EU, which would have more significant gains. As for trade, there would be expansion for Brazil in the primary and low-technology sectors, where agribusiness products are included. Mon, 24 Mar 2025 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/13702 2025-03-24T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/13701 Análise da complexidade econômica e relatedness no Brasil: dinâmicas microrregionais relacionadas ao crescimento econômico e à desigualdade de renda Smolski, Felipe Micail da Silva This thesis consists of three articles that examine the behavior of economic complexity and relatedness in Brazil’s micro-regions from 2002 to 2020. The economic complexity literature has been rapidly expanding, providing increasingly robust evidence on how a country’s economic structure is shaped and its implications for wealth generation, population well-being, and related topics. However, significant gaps remain regarding its effects on economic growth and formal income inequality, particularly in developing countries. At the micro-regional level, this study accounts for the dynamics of temporal and spatial heterogeneity, using reliable regional data while controlling for unobserved factors. The first article calculates the economic complexity of different activities, and analyzes the spatial distribution patterns of economic complexity and relatedness (cognitive proximity between activities) across Brazilian micro-regions through Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA). The findings indicate that the most complex economic activities are concentrated in the manufacturing sector, followed by IT and related services. The study also identifies a positive spatial dependence of economic complexity and relatedness, revealing a high degree of spatial concentration in certain regions. This concentration is influenced by the broader economic context, as evidenced by the increased spatial clustering of economic complexity following the 2015/2016 Brazilian economic crisis. The formation of high-high clusters (high complexity and relatedness within the micro-region and its neighboring areas) is predominantly observed in the Southeast and South regions throughout the analyzed period, reflecting significant disparities in productive capabilities across the country. The second article examines the effects of economic complexity and relatedness on economic growth in Brazil’s micro-regions. To this end, dynamic spatial panel data models (SDM, SDGMM-SYS, and SDGMM-DIF) with instrumental variables were applied to a dataset covering 558 Brazilian micro-regions, incorporating employment data for 59 economic activities over the period. The results suggest that higher levels of economic complexity and relatedness are associated with an increase in micro-regional GDP per capita. Additionally, the effects of economic complexity on economic growth vary across the country’s regions, highlighting regional disparities. Finally, the third article investigates the influence of economic complexity and relatedness on regional formal income inequality in Brazil’s labor market. Employment data for each economic activity in the 558 micro-regions were analyzed using dynamic fixed-effects panel regression models and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) with instrumental variables. The findings reveal that both economic complexity and relatedness contribute to reducing income inequality in the formal labor market, with the impact of economic complexity being particularly pronounced in micro-regions that exhibited high initial income inequality. These results provide an original contribution to the regional economic literature in Brazil, emphasizing the positive spillover effects of economic complexity and cognitive proximity among economic activities in reducing income disparities. In summary, this thesis demonstrates that economic complexity and relatedness have positive effects on economic growth and play a significant role in mitigating formal income inequality at the micro-regional level in Brazil. These findings underscore the need for public policies that foster economic complexity, productive diversification, and regional capacity building, particularly in historically disadvantaged areas. Fri, 28 Mar 2025 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/13701 2025-03-28T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/13571 Avaliações causais dos impactos da abertura multilateral sobre o comércio internacional Franco Junior, Manoel Carlos Rivas The opening of international trade and the integration between countries has generated global economic impacts over the decades. This study intends to carry out causal evaluations of the multilateral openness through the WTO's performance, and if there were benefits for the countries when joining the agreement. The difference-in-differences method with multiple time periods is used, allowing for an annual evaluation of the treatment's impact. This approach aims to address a common limitation in the literature on trade agreements, which often examines long periods and, as a result, is more susceptible to variations in effects caused by other circumstances over time. The analysis also seeks to contribute beyond the total assessment of trade, disaggregating into sectors for better identification if some could perceive more benefits than others, separating into Plant and Animal Products, Agricultural Manufactures, Mineral Products, and Industrial Manufactures. In addition, the aggregate and sectoral impacts on the intensive and extensive margins are evaluated, which evaluate whether there were increases in the value and number of products sold, respectively. The results indicate that there were benefits to the participants for joining the WTO, when analyzed in aggregate by the extensive margin, and when broken down by sector, Agricultural Manufactures, Mineral Products and Industrial Manufactures benefited from the extensive and intensive margins. Thu, 29 Aug 2024 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/13571 2024-08-29T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/13426 Análise comparativa das respostas econômicas e sociais às pandemias da gripe espanhola e Covid-19 no Brasil: lições históricas e estratégias para a formulação de políticas públicas resilientes e eficazes França Júnior, Rogerio da Silva Throughout history, pandemics such as the Spanish Flu of 1918-1919 and COVID-19 of 2020 have brought significant impacts on global social, economic, and political structures. This study investigates and compares the economic responses adopted in Brazil during these two pandemics, aiming to identify patterns, similarities and differences in the strategies implemented. Although separated by more than a century, both pandemics required coordinated actions, revealing both the fragilities and the adaptability of governments in the face of large-scale health crises. Using a methodology of historical review and comparative analysis, the study evaluates fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policies, considering their immediate and long-term effects on the Brazilian economy. The results highlight the need for an integrated and coordinated approach to mitigate the economic and social impacts of pandemics, offering recommendations based on lessons learned for the formulation of more effective and resilient public policies in the future. This study contributes to the understanding of how historical experiences can inform the development of robust universal policies, emphasizing the importane of economic flexibility and the need for continuous learning in crisis management. Wed, 25 Sep 2024 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/13426 2024-09-25T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/13176 Fatores determinantes na decisão de entrada de empresas no mercado de saúde suplementar no Brasil Dias, William de Sousa The health insurance market in Brazil has undergone many transformations since the establishment of the National Supplementary Health Agency (ANS) on January 28, 2000. Subsequently, there have been observed non-simultaneous movements of concentration and interiorization of health plan operators. This study aims to analyze the competitive behavior of firms in relation to the entry movements of health plan operators into the interior of Brazil from 2014 to 2021. To achieve this goal, an empirical entry model was estimated following Bresnahan and Reiss (1991b). The results indicate that health plan operators adopt a 'me too' strategy, as the entry of one operator sends a positive signal for the entry of others. The benefits of discovering a new market by the first entrant dissipate over time, and the market stabilizes around the twelfth entrant. It was also observed that the competitive behavior of firms does not show significant changes in the period from 2014 to 2021. Furthermore, the data suggest that the higher the percentage of salaried employees, the larger the population, the higher the GDP per capita, and the higher the percentage of people aged 60 and over, the more likely it is to have more health plan operators in a given market. Tue, 26 Mar 2024 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/13176 2024-03-26T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/13172 Desenvolvimento econômico do estado do Tocantins: uma análise utilizando os métodos constant-market-share e estrutural-diferencial para avaliar o comércio internacional e a composição da estrutura produtiva regional Cruz, Francisco Viana This study intends to analyze the state of Tocantins's production structure, focusing on various production sectors, especially the agricultural sector, and its connection to international commerce. For a deeper understanding of this structure and its impact on regional development, the Constant Market Share (CMS) model was employed, which is a technique utilized in international commerce analysis to break the variations in a country or region's exportations into different explanatory factors. Our research was focused on three of the most relevant Tocantins's exports: the temporary crops sector, with an emphasis on the production of soybeans and corn; the slaughtering and manufacturing of meat products, especially beef and the vegetable and animal oils and fats manufacturing sector. To analyze the job market's dynamics and productive composition in specific sectors compared to neighboring regions of the state of Tocantins from 2010 to 2020 using the structural-differential method, the results collected revealed a growth in job creation in the state of Tocantins. It's important to stress that the public sector has a specific influence on the state's employment structure. Another important observation is the industrial sector's near absence in the economy, which is reflected in the scarce distribution of jobs in these segments. This interconnection between production structure, international commerce and job and income creation is crucial for the economic development of any region. Sun, 24 Dec 2023 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/13172 2023-12-24T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/13170 Explorando algoritmos de aprendizado de máquina em textos legais antitruste Almeida, Edilson Guedes de This research explores the integration of machine learning algorithms and NLP in antitrust analysis by CADE in Brazil, utilizing topic modeling to quantify how the prevalence of topics can assist in predicting decisions in cartel cases. The focus is on identifying the most efficient technique for examining legal texts from CADE, concentrating on understanding the decision-making process and evaluating relevant algorithms, including investigating hypotheses such as the potential superiority of the BERT model, particularly through BERTopic, in identifying topics in antitrust legal texts. The methodology encompasses the collection and analysis of procedural and biographical data from CADE authorities, employing various modeling tools like NMF, LDA, CTM, Top2Vec, and BERTopic, as well as metrics like NPMI, UMass Coherence, topic diversity, and processing time, taking ethical considerations into account. The results show that the BERTopic model, especially in BERTimbau and DistilUSE configurations, is notable in coherence, thematic diversity, and temporal efficiency, becoming a promising option for analyses in the context of CADE; the research emphasizes the importance of a careful selection of NLP models, ranging from LDA, ideal for high coherence and efficiency, to embedding-based models, more suitable for thematic diversity, and highlights limitations encountered, such as negative NPMI values, suggesting a need for improvement in topic coherence and precision of model settings. Moreover, the research explores the varied performance of different topic modeling techniques and the interplay between the sophistication of the techniques and the need for computational resources, highlighting the relevance of these approaches for the fields of Economics and Law and underscoring the value of applying advanced computational methods in these fields. In conclusion, the thesis emphasizes the importance of data preprocessing and the balance between NLP techniques and the availability of computational resources, confirming the effectiveness of BERTopic in topic modeling in legal contexts, despite the need for adjustments in coherence and configurations; and finally suggests the need for future investigations to enhance NLP and topic modeling techniques, aiming to expand their applicability and relevance. Wed, 06 Mar 2024 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/13170 2024-03-06T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/12926 Volatilidade cambial e seu efeito no valor das exportações: uma análise para a economia brasileira no período 2002 a 2022 Cittadin, Ismael The present study is dedicated to empirically evaluating the relationship of the R$/US$ exchange rate volatility with the financial volume of monthly Brazilian exports by technological intensity in the period 2002-2022, using a SVAR methodological approach. The hypothesis defended, based on the theoretical perspective initially proposed by Clark (1973), is that increases in volatility are capable of generating a negative effect on exports due to risk aversion on the part of exporting firms. Exchange rate volatility is modeled using the GARCH method, and export variables are constructed from exports by technological intensity using Lall’s typology and SH2 detailing. The estimation results did not show statistical significance between exchange rate volatility and exports, both for the case of nominal and real exchange rates. Therefore, the impulse-response functions do not indicate a direct relationship between exchange rate volatility and monthly Brazilian exports by technological intensity, indicating the need for further studies. Thu, 09 Nov 2023 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/12926 2023-11-09T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/12895 Efeitos econômicos de um acordo preferencial de comércio entre Mercosul e União Europeia para o agronegócio brasileiro Granja Júnior, Joseane Ribeiro de Menezes This study analyzes the impacts caused on the economy (production, trade and well-being) and on Brazilian agribusiness by a PTA between Brazil, via Mercosur, and the EU. It should be noted that the simulations were carried out using the computable general equilibrium model and the GTAP 10 database, with the classification of products by level of technological intensity according to the OECD. Thus, four scenarios were adopted: 50% reduction in import tariffs, total elimination of import tariffs, elimination of NTBs associated with partial elimination of import tariffs, and total reduction of import tariffs combined with elimination of NTBs. that, depending on the intensity of the tariff reduction, Brazilian agribusiness exports would increase, as these products have a greater competitive advantage, while the European bloc would expand production and exports of products with greater technological intensity. Welfare gains for Brazil occur with the total reduction of tariffs and the EU would have greater gains in allocative efficiency by focusing on products with greater technological intensity. And the sensitivity analysis shows greater welfare gains for countries involved in the agreement to the detriment of non-involved regions. Finally, a trade agreement with the reduction of tariff barriers and NTBs between Mercosur and the EU would generate even more mutual benefits for both in terms of production volume and trade, with Mercosur countries specializing in primary and low-intensity products technology, while the EU would specialize in medium and high technology sectors. Mon, 25 Sep 2023 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/12895 2023-09-25T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/12816 Interação universidade-empresa e geração de inovação tecnológica: um estudo de múltiplos casos das empresas do setor farmacêutico do Rio Grande do Sul Isse, Kátia Fernanda Esta tese tem como tema a análise da relação entre a interação universidade-empresa e a geração de inovação tecnológica pelas firmas do setor farmacêutico do estado do Rio Grande do Sul, direcionada pela seguinte questão de pesquisa: qual a percepção dos empresários sobre a relação com as universidades para o desenvolvimento e aperfeiçoamento dos seus processos produtivos? Assim, a pesquisa apresenta como objetivo central analisar a percepção das empresas para entender a geração de inovação tecnológica na interação com a universidade. Do ponto de vista metodológico, foram analisadas três empresas no segmento farmacêutico do estado do Rio Grande do Sul, que tiveram interações com grupos de pesquisa das universidades ou instituições vinculadas à atividade de investigação (segundo dados do DGP). Foram empregadas diferentes técnicas de coleta de dados (entrevistas em profundidade, visita técnica, análise de dados secundários e documentos) para contemplar o estudo. Os resultados revelam a importância da universidade para as empresas do Rio Grande do Sul, sendo que a universidade foi o primeiro lugar lembrado por elas para obter conhecimento sobre as Regulamentações de Boas Práticas da ANVISA e adequação ao novo padrão proposto. Foi observada uma alteração significativa na qualificação dos funcionários a partir das novas legislações e regulamentações, pois algumas empresas passaram a levar mestres e doutores para dentro dos seus quadros de colaboradores. Contudo, ainda a relação com as universidades é mantida por sua relevância acadêmica, laboratórios de ponta e custos mais acessíveis, além de, através dos seus pesquisadores, ser possível obter um melhor direcionamento para as estratégias de negócio. Os principais obstáculos identificados por meio dos casos são a morosidade e a desorganização das universidades, como prestadoras de serviços, e a falta de informação sobre as linhas de pesquisa de cada instituição de ensino. Wed, 27 Sep 2023 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/12816 2023-09-27T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/12814 Interação do ensino superior com o setor produtivo em regiões periféricas: uma análise das ações do Instituto Federal do Tocantins no campo da extensão acadêmica Sarmento, Januário Neto Pereira Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) are fundamental actors in the innovative and socioeconomic development process. The discussion inherent to the performance of these institutions beyond teaching and research is housed in the theoretical approach called “third mission”, which takes effect when the HEI goes beyond its “own walls”, through the carrying out of interactive activities with external actors, in a socioeconomic, cultural, environmental perspective, etc. Although third mission academic literature is made up of a diversity of studies, both nationally and internationally, it is not a fully consolidated field of research. It is necessary to better characterize the third mission in peripheral regions and, above all, understand the role of academic extension in this process. Taking advantage of this theoretical need, the present study established the following research problem: how is it possible to characterize the third mission of a higher education institution located in a peripheral region, based on the academic extension offered by it in the productive sector? The Federal Institute of Tocantins (IFTO), a higher education institution located in a peripheral region, was chosen to carry out the empirical research, focusing on the academic extension developed by the IES. The objective that guided this research was the following: to understand the process of engagement of the Federal Institute of Tocantins in third mission activities, based on the academic extension offered by this HEI in the productive sector. Regarding methodological procedures, a case study was carried out, with a qualitative approach, of a basic nature. From the point of view of objectives, it was an exploratory and descriptive research. Two instruments were used for data collection: document analysis and agenda interview. The documentary analysis consisted of 36 extension projects offered and completed between 2019 and 2022, in addition to other normative documents and guidelines for the HEI's extension policy. The IES Pro-Rector of Extension, the coordinators or Technical Managers of the extension sectors on the campuses and the proponents of extension projects whose direct beneficiaries were members of the productive sector participated in the interviews. The data was explored through content analysis, following the teachings of Bardin (2016) and Franco (2005), with the support of NVivo 14 Software. Through the results found, it was possible to conclude that academic extension has been a very important dimension in carrying out the third mission of the IES. This is a third heterogeneous mission, both in relation to the activities carried out and in relation to the forms of connection. It follows an essentially supply-side logic, due to the fragility of demand. The external actors in this interaction are, for the most part, made up of the productive sector of the agribusiness sector, which is a characteristic very present in the economic activity of the location where the institution analyzed is located. Some critical points deserve attention, aiming to strengthen the interactions between the IES and the productive sector: improving the incentive system for internal actors; improvement of the interaction governance policy, mainly regarding some of its principles (transparency, more active participation of stakeholders, regulatory improvement); greater appreciation of academic extension, including with regard to financing this dimension. For future studies, it is suggested to complement the results found in this research, through the presentation and analysis of the perception of external actors (productive sector), which are linked to the institution in the field of academic extension. Wed, 25 Oct 2023 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/12814 2023-10-25T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/12812 Heurísticas e vieses na escolha entre cursos de bacharelado e tecnológico Pereira, Fransérgio Bucar Afonso This thesis aims to evaluate the effect of heuristics on students' choice between the bachelor's and technological training levels at the Instituto Federal do Tocantins. The procedure for obtaining the data resulted from the application of a questionnaire and its analysis was carried out using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique based on orange data mining along with other relevant statistical methods, in order to meet the research objectives. The contributions of this study consist on developing a research that addresses the educational choices of students, seeking to understand the cognitive biases present or that may contribute to the choice between the educational levels of bachelor and technological degrees. Heuristics are based on the concept of learned rules that allow the recipient of the message to draw a conclusion about the information presented with very little cognitive effort, thus a choice based on mental shortcuts can result in systematic biases. The thesis of this study was based on the idea that the biases of insufficient anchor adjustment, the evaluation of conjunctive and disjunctive events, the recoverability of occurrences, the insensitivity to the base rate and the insensitivity to the sample size could be related to the students' choice regarding the training levels of bachelor and technologist. From the analyzes carried out, it was found that the students were influenced by the heuristics of anchoring and adjustment, availability and representativeness, thus making it possible to address the specific objectives. An interesting fact of the research is that, despite the use of heuristics by both formative levels, technologist students showed a greater inclination to incur the biases. Thu, 28 Sep 2023 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/12812 2023-09-28T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/12811 Desempenho dos estudantes no Exame Nacional do Ensino Médio (ENEM): uma análise a partir da Função de Produção Educacional Souza, Flávio Eliziario de The objective of this research was to evaluate the contribution of inputs from the educational production function to the academic performance of students in the National High School Exam (Enem). The study brings the thesis that both physical capital resources and human capital resources are determinants of academic performance, however, that human capital resources are specifically more relevant to student performance. Data Envelopment Analysis focused on the product (DEA) with variable returns to scale was used as a methodology to determine the efficiency of Federal Institutes (IFs). Descriptive statistics were applied, and the model called general DEA was also used with the inputs of human capital, physical capital and socioeconomic level of students and as a product the Enem grades. Furthermore, the model called spatial DEA was used, added to regional indicators considering the States level. The analysis covered Enem data from 2019 and included a sample of 460 campuses of Federal Institutes distributed across all units of the federation. The results allowed us to identify that there is a difference in the distribution of human capital resources, with the North region having the lowest level of qualifications and teaching experience, followed by the Northeast region with the second lowest level of qualifications. Furthermore, both regions had the lowest socioeconomic levels in relation to students. Despite this, the North and Northeast regions stand out for the greater relative number of efficient units. With the overall DEA model analysis, only a third of IFs achieved efficiency. With the inclusion of variables at the state level, spatial DEA model, the number of efficient IFs increased to 54.78%, indicating that the effect of the regional context impacts on IFs in order to make them more efficient while changing the utilization of its inputs. This effect reveals that, in the composition of the educational production function, not only inputs at the level of educational institutions and at the level of students must be considered, but, above all, regional differences at the level of states. Additionally, it was possible to identify that inefficient IFs present gaps in all inputs, however, more significantly for the general infrastructure and titling indicators, showing that these inputs are not being used in order to increase performance. As a result, the research allowed us to conclude that there is no way to determine whether human capital is more relevant than physical capital in explaining performance, because both inputs contribute to both the efficiency and inefficiency of IFs when they are not used in their full capacity. Wed, 27 Sep 2023 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/12811 2023-09-27T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/12614 Simulação econômica dos impactos do enfraquecimento da união europeia: uma análise de equilíbrio geral computável Espanhol, Bruno Kops The departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union caused the advent of the debate about globalization and how far this integration process can go. In recent years, several events, such as the trade war between the United States and China, the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union, the Covid-19 pandemic and even the recent war in Ukraine, have made us question how far we are willing to go with processes of integration and globalization. In this context, this work proposes the simulation of a new departure from the European Union, through the increase of non-tariff barriers between the countries involved, in order to analyse the possible effects on the countries and regions involved in economic terms: production, well-being and international trade. Using the computable general equilibrium model (GTAP 10) five possible exits from the European Union are simulated: Poland, Nordic Cooperation, Italy, Greece, and the Netherlands. In the proposed scenarios, the regions involved in regional disintegration tend to experience a loss of well-being, especially due to the worsening of terms of trade and technological efficiency, caused by reduced access to imports from EU member countries. There is a decrease in international trade and an increase in local production, with a focus on producing what each region has a competitive advantage. The countries most negatively affected by disintegration tend to be those whose economy is most dependent on international trade. However, countries outside the European bloc tend to have increases in well-being, caused by improved terms of trade due to the equalization of conditions with the country that leaves the European Union. Fri, 31 Mar 2023 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/12614 2023-03-31T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/12613 Determinantes da demanda por fundos de investimentos brasileiros, quais atributos influenciam a decisão do investidor? Locatelli, André This thesis aims to examine which factors influence the demand for investment funds in the Brazilian market, in the post-2015 period, when the new classifications of investment funds indicated by the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários come into force. The model used is the demand for differentiated goods, proposed by Berry (1994), called nested logit. This model considers that the agent selection process occurs sequentially, where products are grouped (nests) according to their characteristics. In the present work, the first level of the decision-making process consists of the investor's choice to allocate his resources in short/medium term funds or in private pension funds. In the second level, the investor chooses in which class of fund he will allocate his resources between fixed income, stocks, multimarkets or foreign exchange, and these classes are included in short/medium term funds and private pension funds. The database consists of an unbalanced panel, considering the opening and closing of investment funds over the analyzed period and has 416,372 observations, in a period of 59 months that occurs between August 2016 and June 2021. Estimates were performed using the Generalized Two-Stage Least Squares (G2SLS) method, using the average management fees of rival funds of the same class as an instrumental variable. The results show that the management fee, which is the price of the product in the model, registered a negative coefficient, as expected, demonstrating that an increase in this fee corresponds to losses of market share for the funds. The dummy that indicates whether there is any statistical significance in raising funds in December, contrary to expectations, resulted in a negative coefficient, indicating that this month there are losses of market shares for this industry. The January dummy, which indicates whether there is a change in funding in the month of January, resulted in a coefficient with a positive value, demonstrating seasonality in funding. Demand price elasticities showed high values, suggesting high sensitivity of funds to changes in their prices. Price elasticities and cross-elasticities of multimarket funds are greater for private pension plans. As for equity and fixed income funds, the price elasticities of demand are lower in private pension funds, but the cross-subgroup elasticities are higher, indicating that the market share of this good is sensitive to the increase in prices of other competitors. Tue, 09 May 2023 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/12613 2023-05-09T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/12612 Fatores de resiliência regional evolucionária: a realidade de uma região especializada na produção de calçados do Rio Grande do Sul/Brasil Matte Júnior, Alexandre Aloys Evolutionary regional resilience consists of an important discussion about the ability of a territory to conceive and implement new resources and skills that allow it to adapt favorably to the dynamics of transformation driven by changes in the environment, in the long term. In this sense, this research analyzed the evolutionary regional resilience process of a region with a productive specialty in a peripheral country, Vale do Paranhana/RS – Brazil, based on regional resilience factors. The main contributions of the thesis consist of theoretical discussion and empirical research, where the critical factors of evolutionary regional resilience were operationalized through the perception of regional actors about them, in a social and geographic context little addressed in other works related to regional resilience. For such, a case study of the region of Vale do Paranhana/RS was adopted and a mixed approach, using as the main method the analysis of primary qualitative data, collected through the accomplishment of 36 non-structured interviews focused with regional actors. Secondary data, such as indicators and regional data, were also used to characterize the trajectory of the Vale do Paranhana and complement the analysis. As a result, the adaptability factors of the region, its history and dependence on the trajectory and social capital and local quality of life are positive and offer solid bases for the region to develop, in the perception of regional actors and analysis of secondary data. On the other hand, there are obvious weaknesses, since the actors identify other factors necessary for evolutionary resilience as non-existent, such as knowledge networks, R&D and Innovation, the interaction and articulation between regional actors and difficulties related to institutional structures and the labor market. In addition, the analysis of secondary data identified a reduction in variables such as GDP per capita, number of productive establishments and employment relationships, especially in the footwear industrial segment and, on the other hand, an increase in the region's GDP and in the number of employees with higher education completed or in progress, growth of jobs in activities related to services and civil construction, in addition to evolutions in the Human Development Index. Thus, the main challenges for the evolutionary regional resilience of Vale do Paranhana are the development of local labor and attracting young people to the predominant activities in Vale do Paranhana. Also, the interaction between regional actors is indicated as necessary by the interviewees. From the conduct of the research, it is clear that the use of a mixed methodology contributed to the analysis of evolutionary regional resilience, since the analysis of secondary data was initially adopted and it was identified that they indicated a stable situation for resilience. However, from the conduction of an analysis with primary data, weaknesses were perceived in different regional factors, captured through the perception of the actors that are in the region and that do not appear in quantitative statistics, since it is based on an analysis of dynamics that are ongoing. Also, the adoption of regional resilience factors as a basis for analyzing it from an evolutionary perspective proves to be able to serve as a subsidy for the creation of strategies and policies for regional development. Mon, 29 May 2023 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/12612 2023-05-29T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/12487 Infraestrutura e comércio internacional: impactos da hard infraestrutura nos países da América Latina Cruz Junior, Luiz Valdemir Ribas da Infrastructure matters. Its effects propagate in international trade through different channels. Day by day we face them in all spectrums of our life, as in education, sanitation, health access and mobility of people and goods, they all are directly related to economic growth and development. And it is on the mobility of goods, as known as transport infrastructure, that this research focuses. In this sense, the general aim of this research is to analyze the influence of hard infrastructure on trade in Latin American countries. Furthermore, the gravitational model in panel data have been chosen as a methodology for the period between 2007 and 2017. The sample of countries included the main trading partners, in a total of 68 countries. In essence the results showed that the general infrastructure of Latin America affected trade positively, due to the combination of different types of infrastructure provides a very solid explanatory power on trade flows. The countries of the region were quite sensitive to the infrastructure of the exporting country, in the event of the general infrastructure of the exporting countries had negative effects on Latin American trade. Improvements in the trade partners' roads indicated that they did not contribute to the increase in trade flows with Latin America. And the ports of trading partners were positive and significant for Latin American trade. under those circumstances, the potential for expanding trade was detected, based on an improvement in the quality of road and port infrastructure, which is important for the internal cohesion of the territories of these countries. In summary it was identified that the region has a gap in the efficient provision of infrastructure, limiting countries in terms of accessing greater gains from trade while in this condition the main results already were positive for Latin America. Wed, 30 Mar 2022 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/12487 2022-03-30T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/11901 Ciclo econômico e política fiscal brasileira no período 2008-2019 Ness, Mosar Leandro Economic cycles represent the oscillations of variables, such as production and employment in a sector, region or country. They are presented in a unique, non-divisible form and with their own characteristics in terms of amplitude and duration. The Brazilian economy, over the last two decades, has shown a pronounced cyclical behavior. The origin of such a situation may be related to the conduct of economic policy, as it may have a pro- or counter-cyclical character. Thus, the objective of this thesis was to analyze the economic cycle of Brazil, in the period 2008-2019, in relation to fiscal policy. One of the problems with working with time series is that, in most cases, these series have points outside the curve. Such a situation can lead to estimation errors. To correct this problem, the local-level State Space Model was used. To verify the cyclical behavior, one of the promising techniques is the Regime Change Model. With the seminal work of Hamilton (1989), a new field of investigation related to the topic was opened. In this study, the technique of Markovian Regime Change with Dynamic Regression (MS-DR) was used. The tested hypotheses presented results as expected. The hypothesis of the existence of a common movement between the two series was confirmed. The result made it clear that, in the long term, the behavior of the series is similar, especially with the removal of irregularities. The proposition that the Discretionary Expenses movement is the inductor of the IBC-BR movement was also confirmed. Fri, 05 Aug 2022 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/11901 2022-08-05T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/11296 Impactos da guerra comercial entre EUA e China nos países intensivos em pesquisa e desenvolvimento (P&D) Canci, Ediane The aim of this study is to analyze the possible impacts caused on production, trade and well-being in the most R&D intensive countries, such as South Korea, Japan, Germany and France, as well as Brazil, from the trade war between the US and China. In this investigation, we used the general equilibrium model computable through the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), in its version 10. It was found that a trade war between the US and China would cause a loss of well-being for both and gains for R&D intensive countries, in addition to Brazil. China's welfare loss would be greater, mainly due to the depreciation of the terms of trade. In terms of production, the US would migrate a portion of capital, land and labor from the medium-high-tech sector to the high-tech sector, while China would migrate from the high-tech sector to the primary goods production sector. Among the most R&D intensive economies, Japan would suffer the greatest negative impact on the trade balance, but in terms of welfare it would be the country most benefited by the war. For less R&D intensive countries, such as Brazil, the difficulty in guaranteeing intellectual property protection has mitigated private investments in R&D. Wed, 29 Sep 2021 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/11296 2021-09-29T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/11108 Crescimento, comércio, instituições e geografia: novas evidências empíricas Fabris, Thiago Rocha The thesis main objective is to measure the impacts of trade, institutions, and geography on economic growth. For this, two approaches were used. In the first, a bibliometric study was conducted referring to the literature that specifically addresses this topic. The focus was to identify the empirical models that minimize endogeneity problems during the period that includes trade policies related to import substitution, export promotion, and trade opening. The second approach used econometric models to measure the effects of trade, institutions, and geography on economic growth in a sample of 133 countries in the period 1996-2014. The proposed model is based on the studies by Frankel and Romer (1999), Rodrik et al. (2004), Santos Silva and Tenreyo (2006), and Squalli and Wilson (2011). The results, related to bibliometric analysis, identified 62 studies according to the criteria established by the research. The parameters estimated in the econometric models suggest that trade, institutions, and geography contribute to explain the countries' per capita income. Trade had the highest coefficients, suggesting that trade transactions between countries would be the main profound determinant of economic growth. The impacts of trade, institutions, and geography appear to be less pronounced in low-income countries, especially in parameters that reflect institutions' influence on per capita income. Fri, 26 Feb 2021 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/11108 2021-02-26T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/11103 O impacto da disponibilidade de tecnologia móvel sobre o mercado bancário brasileiro a partir da regulação das fintechs Giacobbo, Tatiana Silva Fontoura de Barcellos The financial sector has been networked since the emergence of the internet and mobile technology has accelerated the implementation of new means of accessing products and services in the banking market and enabled the entry of new firms, fintechs, which operate only through virtual means. This thesis aimed to evaluate the impact of financial technology, through the availability of mobile internet technology on the traditional Brazilian banking market, from the introduction of regulation of fintechs as financial institutions in Brazil. To do so, we used as a proxy for the entry of financial technology the availability of mobile Internet in the localities, information about the 4th generation (4G) networks per municipality, present in the database of the telecommunication consulting company Teleco, and used data concerning four banking products of the traditional market: credit per capita, financing per capita, real estate financing per capita and savings per capita, with monthly data made available by the Monthly Banking Statistics per Municipality, of the Central Bank of Brazil. The database used contemplated 3,160 Brazilian municipalities, for the period from July 2017 to December 2019. The empirical analysis methods used were two-way fixed effects with leads and lags and two-stage differences-in-differences, through the methodologies proposed, respectively, by Callaway and Sant'Anna (2020) and by Gardner (2021). The study showed that the entry of financial technology through 4G mobile coverage impacted the levels of per capita credit volume, per capita financing volume, per capita real estate financing volume, and per capita savings volume of traditional banks. Thus, despite the theoretical ambiguity on the impact of the entry of fintechs in the banking market, it can be inferred that their presence in the Brazilian market had different impacts on the banking products tested. In the financing segment, the results showed that the entry of 4G mobile technology in municipalities caused a reduction in the volume of financing per capita granted by traditional banks; in the savings segment, in turn, the results showed an increase in the volume of savings per capita in traditional banks; in the financing segments, the results showed an increase in the volume of housing credit granted by traditional banks; and in the real estate credit the results showed neither statistically significant nor convergence between the different empirical strategies applied, although all results obtained indicate that the entry of mobile technology impacted the traditional banking market. Thu, 24 Feb 2022 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/11103 2022-02-24T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/11100 Impacto econômico do Programa BR do Mar: uma análise de equilíbrio geral por meio do PAEG - TLOG Barbosa, Márcio Nora The aim of this dissertation is to investigate the relationship of the national transportation infrastructure, specially the ports, with the domestic and external Brazilian trade, analyzing the possible effects that the Brazilian government policy to encourage the cabotage (“Br do Mar” program) could exert on the country’s cargo transportation matrix and interregional routes, as well as verify the effects on the national economic sectors and the spillover effects on Brazil's international trade. To reach this aim, a Computable General Equilibrium Model, called PAEG-TLOG was developed, based on the GTAP model version 10. This model presents the interregional transport matrix and its respective routes in 4 different modes of transport. The results indicate that the “BR do Mar” program generates a greater balance in the interregional transport matrix, with a greater participation of cabotage, due to market gains over the road modal, representing a reduction of approximately 410 thousand trucks on the long distances roads, reducing accidents, theft and damage costs and generating lower levels of pollution. The sectorial effects indicate that the productive sectors located in the Northeast, Southeast and North regions have greater increases in production levels (mostly), with emphasis on the Rice and Chemical sectors. However, the Soybean sector and the transport services sector presented losses in productive activity. The aggregate effects generate an increase in Brazilian GDP and welfare of around 0.1% for both variables. The foreign trade showed to be the GDP component that most contributes to this positive balance, with increases in exports of 0.09% and 0.06% for imports. The results corroborate with the scenario that a more balanced transport matrix reduces the production and marketing costs, making the regions more competitive, increasing their consumption and production, and enabling a greater participation in international trade due to the greater competitiveness of their products. Fri, 25 Feb 2022 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/11100 2022-02-25T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/11095 Industrialização e desenvolvimento econômico: os efeitos das interações com o investimento fixo e com o crédito disponível Gewehr, Adriano Cristian This research demonstrated that the discussion regarding the relevance of the manufacturing industry to economic growth and development still has elements to be revisited, because some relationships may be being disconsidered in the relevant empirical literature. Several authors have empirically evidenced the importance of manufacturing to the economic growth of countries. However, the empirical review carried out detected that, despite the dedication to the topic, the relationship between manufacturing and fixed investment, and the relationship between manufacturing and available bank credit, are not considered. Thus, the research aims to respond to the problem pointed out: are the effects of the manufacturing sector on economic growth and development enhanced by investment spending and bank credit offered? As an objective, it was established to measure the interaction effects of the manufacturing industry with fixed investment and bank credit available for economic growth and the development of nations. Indeed, to achieve this aim, the research uses structured econometric models based on panel data. The dynamic panel data model proved to be more appropriate in a sample containing 119 countries that held 96% of the world's GDP. When countries' fixed investment values move very close to their maximum value in the sample, it is assumed that for every 1 percentage point change in the share of the manufacturing sector in GDP, the GDP per capita growth rate rises by average 0.81%. When a country increases investment spending, the positive effect of its manufacturing sector on economic growth and development is enhanced: fixed investment can cause the average effect of the manufacturing sector's share on the GDP growth rate per capita is quadrupled. Such results are consistent with the theory of structural change. As available bank credit moves very close to its maximum value in the sample, for every 1 percentage point change in the share of the manufacturing sector in GDP, the GDP per capita growth rate rises by average 1.38%. When a country's financial banking system makes more credit available to companies, the positive effect of its manufacturing sector on economic growth is enhanced: the volume of available credit can cause the average effect of the participation of the manufacturing sector in the growth rate of GDP per capita is almost quadrupled. These results corroborate assumptions contained in the post-Keynesian approach of a monetary production economy. The amplifying effects in both interactions are of exceptional importance, since, as the dependent variable is the rate of growth of GDP per capita, development matters are additionally implied. The results obtained indicate that the research innovated and added a new page to the specific literature. Empirical evidence, in addition to corroborating the importance of the manufacturing sector for economic growth and development, deepens the results based on the proposition of tested interactions. Thu, 24 Feb 2022 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/11095 2022-02-24T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/10871 Desintegração comercial: impactos econômicos do Brexit Megiato, Ezequiel Insaurriaga The aim of this study is to analyze the economic effects of the commercial disintegration process resulting from Brexit on production, trade and welfare, especially for the United Kingdom, the European Union, the United States of America, China , the Commonwealth of Nations, the countries of the Common Market of the South (MERCOSUR) and other countries in Latin America. The method used was the general equilibrium model computable from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database – version 10. Through a model based on constant returns, the non-tariff barriers between the United Kingdom were partially raised. and European Union, in the amount of 25% of the non-tariff barriers that monitor imports from the European Union from the United States of America, based on Berden et al. (2009). The results revealed that the Trade and Cooperation Agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom would generate a reduction in the level of well-being of the actors directly involved in Brexit, as also verified in the literature. The drop in welfare would be greater for the United Kingdom and most of the losses for both would result from the imposition of non-tariff barriers as a result of the loss of technical efficiency. On the other hand, the other regions would show gains in well-being, with emphasis on the United States of America and the Commonwealth of Nations. China, the Rest of Latin America and Brazil would also have welfare gains. The gains of all these regions would occur mainly due to the improvement in the terms of trade, to the detriment of the United Kingdom and the European Union. Thu, 28 Oct 2021 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/10871 2021-10-28T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/9237 Multiplicadores fiscais do governo central do Brasil: efeito de choque identificado via abordagem narrativa Bertussi, Luís Antônio Sleimann The study aims to estimate the fiscal multipliers of the central government of Brazil’s expenditures for different states of the economy and different monetary regimes in the period from 2000 to 2018. The study innovates with the use of an exogenous expenditures series built with the narrative approach proposed by Romer and Romer (2010), Favero and Giavazzi (2012) Ramey and Zubairy (2018). For the first stage, the models are: (i) Local Projection Method (LP), (ii) Bayesian VAR - BVAR and, (iii) Structural VAR - SVAR to estimate the multiplier effects with three different patterns for quarterly data: (i) exogenous expenditures, government expenditures and product, (ii) government expenditures and product, and (iii) exogenous expenditures and product. For a second stage, exogenous expenditure will be used as an instrument for estimating multipliers based on monthly data and in different states of the economy and different monetary regimes using instrumental variables and the Jordan method. Multipliers are calculated in form of integral, without using conversions in logarithm, following Gordon and Krenn (2010), avoiding bias in estimates. In general, the main results found are that the fiscal multipliers have estimates lower than unity. For estimates with quarterly data, with exogenous expenditures and without considering the state of the economy, the multipliers were 0.48 and 0.83 for the periods of one and two years, and greater than unity (1.14 and 1.31 ) for three and four years, with possible bias in these last results due to not considering the state of the economy. For government expenditure shocks, the multipliers reach 0.92 in the third year with the Jordà Local Projection method. Still, a downward bias is observed in the estimates with SVAR and BVAR models. For monthly data, the results show that the multipliers are not greater than unity in the different states of the economy or in periods when the interest rate is below its long-term trend. It is observed that only shocks in the exogenous variable are not able to increase the multiplier effects in the short term in different states of the economy, and may also not be considered different from zero in the estimates of the coefficients with the use of nominal government expenditures. Furthermore, there is evidence of an upward bias in the size of the multipliers when using primary expenditures in the estimates. As a rule, multipliers are higher (0.87) in periods of slack of the economy than in periods of expansion. For different monetary regimes, with low interest rates, the multiplier reached a maximum of 0.57. Finally, multipliers, in the vast majority, do not show statistical difference between the different states of the economy. Wed, 20 May 2020 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/9237 2020-05-20T00:00:00Z