Simulação econômica dos impactos do enfraquecimento da união europeia: uma análise de equilíbrio geral computável

Abstract

The departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union caused the advent of the debate about globalization and how far this integration process can go. In recent years, several events, such as the trade war between the United States and China, the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union, the Covid-19 pandemic and even the recent war in Ukraine, have made us question how far we are willing to go with processes of integration and globalization. In this context, this work proposes the simulation of a new departure from the European Union, through the increase of non-tariff barriers between the countries involved, in order to analyse the possible effects on the countries and regions involved in economic terms: production, well-being and international trade. Using the computable general equilibrium model (GTAP 10) five possible exits from the European Union are simulated: Poland, Nordic Cooperation, Italy, Greece, and the Netherlands. In the proposed scenarios, the regions involved in regional disintegration tend to experience a loss of well-being, especially due to the worsening of terms of trade and technological efficiency, caused by reduced access to imports from EU member countries. There is a decrease in international trade and an increase in local production, with a focus on producing what each region has a competitive advantage. The countries most negatively affected by disintegration tend to be those whose economy is most dependent on international trade. However, countries outside the European bloc tend to have increases in well-being, caused by improved terms of trade due to the equalization of conditions with the country that leaves the European Union.